Milwaukee Brewers (NL Wildcard)
vs. Philadelphia Phillies (NL East)
Starting Lineup - Phillies; Say what you want about Ryan Howard's .250 batting average, the man was the most clutch performer in the month of September. If you go strickly by the numbers, it will be hard to vote against Albert Pujols for the MVP, but Howard probably gets it based on his 11 HRs and 32 RBIs over the final month. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have had better years, but they are MVP type players who are very, very gutty. The Brewers have a good, young lineup as well. Ryan Braun bursted out of a late season funk with two GIANT homeruns over the final week. Prince Fielder had some real big hits as well, and you cannot ignore Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy. This should be a fun matchup, but I give a slight edge to Philly's lineup based on a little more depth and experience. They definitely could use the re-awakening of Pat Burrell's bat though. He hasn't been that good since his stellar first half.
Bench - Brewers; I'll take the likes of Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall to potentially come in the game late and spank one out of the yard over the Matt Stairs led Phillies. The Brewers also have a professional hitter in Gabe Kapler who can come off the bench.
Starting Pitching - Phillies; The Phillies have the deeper rotation and the Brewers have CC Sabathia. I almost declared a draw for this category based on Sabathia's historic second half, but I will go with the Phillies depth. I would have given this category to Milwaukee had Ben Sheets been healthy. The Brewers MUST win Sabathia's two outings and hope they can steal one of the other games. Yovani Gallardo will start Game 1 for the Brewers, and while he's a great young prospect, he hasn't pitched much all year due to injuries. Cole Hamels didn't have a strong season for his standards, and has been so-so for about a month. Brett Myers had been pitching his best ball this season until giving up 14 earned runs over his last two outings. Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer are advantages in the other games unless Jeff Suppan can rekindle old postseason magic.
Bullpen - Phillies; Without a doubt the largest advantage for either team in this series. Brad Lidge has been spectacular this season in converting all 41 of his save opportunities. Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson have all been outstanding as well. On the flip side, the Brewers have been holding their breath every time Salomon Torres takes the mound in the 9th. He's been good for his standards this year, but the cracks are starting to show. Then you have the lovable Eric Gagne in the 8th. Maybe compared to the Mets bullpen the Brewers aren't so bad, but they hardly stack up with Philadelphia. Brian Shouse is their best reliever and he's just a lefty specialist.
Defense - Phillies; Before looking at the stats, I thought I was going to see another big advantage for Philly, but the difference isn't as stark as you might think. I will go with my gut and give Philly a slight edge though. I've seen them make several great plays late in games. Lidge would not have been perfect without some key defense on occassion. I've seen the Brewers make bad plays at the wrong time too. I won't kill Milwaukee though because the key defensive stats are very close.
Manager - Neither; Charlie Manuel is a terrible manager and Dale Sveum is only in his third week on the job. No opinion here.
Pick - Philadelphia in 4; The Brewers rotation is in shambles right now without Sheets, and even Sabathia will have to throw on short rest in Game 2. The Phillies bullpen is a big factor, and I think they will have a bit of a chip on their shoulders from last year's quick exit to Colorado.
Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West) vs. Chicago Cubs (NL Central)Starting Lineup - Cubs; Manny Ramirez can blow up this assessment, but the Cubs have a much deeper lineup. The Cubs have a great blend of stars like Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee and major role players like Mark DeRosa and Ryan Theriot. As stated in my last post, if the Cubs get a hot Alfonso Soriano they will be very tough to beat. You can almost flip a coin on how he will perform this postseason. The Dodgers do have a better lineup than the average fan would think though. Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and others are playing their best ball of the season. This isn't the same team the Cubs held to a combined 18 runs in 7 head-to-head matchups this season. And obviously they didn't have a player who has hit nearly .400 with 17 HRs and 53 RBI in 53 games since coming from Boston at the trade deadline. That team in May had doughnut connoisseur, Andruw Jones.
Bench - Cubs; No one can match the depth of the Cubs this postseason. Mike Fontenot, Reed Johnson/Jim Edmonds, Micah Hoffpauir, and even backup catcher Henry Blanco are all threats with the stick. The best Dodger off the pine is probably Juan Pierre, and he'll probably be used to steal a base late in a close game.
Starting Rotation - Cubs; This pick is contingent upon Carlos Zambrano or Rich Harden giving a quality effort in their start. Even if one struggles, I believe the Cubs still have enough to get by. It is a major concern that Zambrano has had an over 7 ERA since August 1st and that Rich Harden only threw 17 innings in September. That puts a lot of pressure on Ryan Dempster to win Game 1 and Ted Lilly later in the series to continue his dominance of late. The Dodgers will start Derek Lowe in Game 1 who had an excellent September. We know of his postseason record, so he was a good choice over Chad Billingsley for the first game. After Billingsley, the Dodgers have nothing, and you may see them start Lowe on short rest in Game 4. The Cubs have the edge here, but with their concerns with Zambrano and Harden lately it was a big break they didn't have to face Johan Santana and the Mets.
Bullpen - Cubs; This would have been a lot tougher for me to choose had Hong-Chih Kuo not been scratched from this series with a potential blood clot. He had been one of the best kept secrets in the National League in the second half. The Dodgers do have closer Takashi Saito back which will allow them more flexibility with Jonathan Broxton. Joe Beimel is a dominant lefty as well. However the Cubs hit lefties better than most teams do, so it sort of negates the Dodgers strength to matchup with the pen. While the Cubs don't have a lockdown bullpen, they do have a very solid pen for the first time in a very long time. Carlos Marmol is simply fantastic. Kerry Wood has done a fabulous job in the pen. Jeff Samardzija has nasty stuff as well. The reason this pen is not a lockdown one is that they all can get wild. Walks in big spots are a concern, and Wood is among the lead leaders in hit batsman. I give the edge to the Cubs because of their nasty stuff and the Dodgers lack of Kuo. However, these games will be very compelling if they go to the bullpen.
Defense - Dodgers; Cue the clown music as it should be fun to watch the epic left field matchup between Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. Two-thirds of the Dodgers outfield is very good though. Kemp and Ethier were among the league leaders in outfield assists. Russell Martin is very special behind the dish and James Loney is solid at first as well. If they have any weak areas it could be up the middle with Rafael Furcal who has just returned from back surgery and Jeff Kent who is breaking down due to old age. The Cubs defense is much improved from years' pasts, but the Dodgers have a special thing going.
Manager - Even; A great matchup between two of the best managers in baseball history. Should be fun to watch Lou and Joe square off. I really can't give an edge as their styles are so contrasting, but so very effective. We'll let the series decide who's better.
Pick - Chicago in 4; I am tempted to be bold and pick the Cubs in 3, but with the SP concerns, I'll give the Dodgers a game. The Dodgers have had a nice September, but I think the Cubs really outmatch them in every area of the game. This pick can certainly be blown up because Manny Ramirez can certainly put the Dodgers on his back and create a long series.
Pat Morgan
Many people consider these teams to be the best two in baseball, which makes for an intriguing ALDS, beginning tonight at 10 p.m. est. The Red Sox are dealing with a couple of key injuries (Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett), while the Angels are the best all around team in the American League, and maybe all of baseball. They do everything well and they should be the AL World Series representative come late October. Both managers have postseason experience, but I think Mike Scioscia is going to get the best of Terry Francona this year. With Manny Ramirez now a Dodger, I have a feeling that Jason Bay is going to have a tough time coming through this postseason. He knows that Manny was a stud in the playoffs while he was in Boston, and now he must fill those shoes. He's going to feel the pressure, and I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles against the Angels pitching staff.
