2008-09 NBA PREDICTIONS

So I'm a tad late with the Celtics beginning the defense of their championship just moments ago. But here we go!

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic- #1 Boston (O 55.5), #6 Toronto (U 47.5), #7 Philadelphia (U 48.5), New York (O 32.5), New Jersey (O 27.5)

The Celtics should easily win the Atlantic once again. I think James Posey was a big loss, but that will affect them in April/May. The Sixers seem to be a very popular sleeper after their strong second half and playoff showing last year. I don't think they get above the 48.5 predicted for them. The Raptors and Sixers will battle it out for second and perhaps two of the bottom playoff spots. The Knicks uptempo play will keep them in games and will annoy their opponents. That should get them to 33-38 wins. The Nets are clearly rebuilding, but they should get to 28 wins.

Central- #3 Cleveland (O 47.5), #4 Detroit (U 50.5), #5 Chicago (O 40.5), #8 Milwaukee (O 30.5), Indiana (U 34.5)

It is hard to pick against the Pistons, who always win this division, but they have a new coach and they make take awhile to click before taking off. Lebron should get the Cavs over the top this year and be in line to take on the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. I expect the Bulls to bounce back after a dreadful year. The Bucks are a heavy sleeper of mine with an underrated starting five. If the rookie, Joe Alexander, brings some of his offense to the NBA, this team will easily clear 30.5 wins. Scott Skiles is a very good coach as well. The Pacers are the unfortunate cellar dweller in the East's deepest division.

Southeast- #2 Orlando (O 47.5), Washington (O 37.5), Atlanta (U 37.5), Miami (U 37.5), Charlotte (U 35.5)

After the Magic, this is a terrible division. I expect Orlando to have a high win total because of the division. If Gilbert Arenas stays healthy, they have a good shot at making it back to the playoffs. I think the Hawks have hit their ceiling for now. The Heat could be much better should Dwyane Wade stay healthy. I predict Michael Beasley will win the Rookie of the Year. However, I don't see this team under a new coach to go much north of 35 wins. The Bobcats are led by Larry Brown, but I would expect them to be one of the NBA's worst teams once again.

Western Conference:

Northwest- #3 Utah (O 51.5), #5 Portland (O 45.5), Denver (O 41.5), Minnesota (U 32.5), Oklahoma City (U 25.5)

The Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the league AGAIN! Deron Williams is perhaps the most undervalued player in the game. Jerry Sloan is a tremendous coach, and I can see this team making a deep run in the West. The Trail Blazers will finally show off Greg Oden, and hope to build upon last year's success. I'm not sure if they are ready for a big time number of wins yet, but I expect them to contend for the postseason. The Nuggets have dropped in people's eyes. They will eclipse that 41.5 number though. The Timberwolves are much improved, but are still quite a bit away from being a playoff contender. The Sonics, I mean Thunder, should have a rough year one in Oklahoma City. By the way, do their colors remind you of the Hornets or what?

Southwest- #2 New Orleans (O 51.5), #4 Houston (U 53.5), #6 San Antonio (U 48.5), #7 Dallas (O 46.5), Memphis (O 23.5)

The Hornets are my team to beat. The had a remarkable season last year and I expect them to continue to get better. Chris Paul is my pick to win the MVP. They added a great intangible in James Posey who brings wins wherever he goes. The Rockets are a popular pick by many people. I can see them topping the 53.5 number, but 51-53 wins seems like the number they'll get to me. I'm looking to thread the needle with my Spurs and Mavericks picks. I think the Spurs, without Ginobili for awhile, will drop below 50 wins for the first time in awhile, and I think the Mavs will barely clear the 46.5 number. I'm going to put the Spurs ahead of the Mavs, but not by much. The Grizzlies once again are unfortunate for being in the Southwest division.

Pacific- #1 LA Lakers (O 55.5), #8 Phoenix (U 46.5), Golden State (U 37.5), LA Clippers (U 33.5), Sacramento (U 27.5)

If the Lakers don't coast to a Pacific division title, then there should be an investigation. They will be healthy which they weren't when they ran through the West last Spring. I expect them to contend with the Celtics for the best record in the NBA. The Suns have a new coach who wants to install a defensive game over the run and gun offense Mike D'Antoni left behind. I doubt that works with the likes of an aging Shaq and several players who aren't used to playing defense. The Warriors window was open briefly two years ago, but I see them falling back into an NBA doormat. The rest of this division is dreadful. The Clippers have a couple proven NBA players, but aren't deep at all, and the Kings are perhaps the toughest team to name in the NBA.

Eastern Conference Playoffs:
Quarters:
#1 Bos over #8 Mil (4-1)
#2 Orl over #7 Phi (4-3)
#3 Cle over #6 Tor (4-2)
#5 Chi over #4 Det (4-3)
Semis:
Bos over Chi (4-1)
Cle over Orl (4-2)
Final:
Cle over Bos (4-2)

Western Conference Playoffs:
Quarters:
#1 LA over #8 Pho (4-0)
#2 NO over #7 Dal (4-1)
#3 Utah over #6 SA (4-3)
#4 Hou over #5 Por (4-2)
Semis:
Hou over LA (4-2)
NO over Utah (4-3)
Final:
NO over Hou (4-2)

THE NBA FINALS: New Orleans over Cleveland (4-1)

Rookie of the Year: Michael Beasley
Defensive Player of the Year: Kevin Garnett
Sixth Man: Kirk Hinrich
Coach of the Year: Nate McMillan
MVP: Chris Paul

Pat Morgan

SHAWN DROPS BALL

"Hey guys, I'm sorry I was busy doing a fantasy NBA draft and forgot to make my ALCS pick."

First the Mets, then the Cubs, now Shawn makes this October even more painful. Thanks buddy!

DODGERS/PHILLIES NLCS BREAKDOWN

Starting Lineup - Phillies; Philadelphia matches up against the Dodgers pitching much better than the Cubs did in the NLDS. Unlike the Cubs, the Phillies big boppers are lefties. I expect Ryan Howard to have a big series with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley setting the table. I like the depth of the Phillies lineup better as well. Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth were perhaps the two most influential hitters against Milwaukee. If Pat Burrell builds on the two homers he hit in the series clincher in the previous round, the Phillies offense will be very tough to handle. We all know Manny Ramirez is the single greatest threat in this series, but I think the most important hitter for the Dodgers is Rafael Furcal. If he can get on base regularly, it will mean that the Phillies will have to pitch to Manny more than they'd like. They will need Andre Either and Matt Kemp to pick it up otherwise the backend of the Dodgers lineup will be easy to tame. I give the Phillies the edge though based on their balanced and much deeper lineup.

Bench - Dodgers; Neither team has a particularly strong bench, but I'll give the slight edge to LA. They have Jeff Kent who is probably the best hitter off the bench for either team. Juan Pierre can come in and manufacture a run if they need it late in a game. The Phillies best bats off the bench are Matt Stairs and So Taguchi. Neither team will scare you with a hidden bat late in a game though.

Starting Pitching - Phillies; Cole Hamels is the best pitcher on either side, but this is a very close category. If Derek Lowe can continue his good run of pitching and somehow steal Game 1, the Dodgers might have the edge the rest of the way. Chad Billingsley is an exceptional pitcher and the Game 2 matchup with Brett Myers will be very compelling. I expect Hamels to deliver Game 1, so Billingsley would hold the future of the series in his hands. To me, Myers is a huge wildcard in this series. He is certainly capable of tossing eight, one-run innings, but on the flip side, he could be chased in the third inning. I expect he'll pitch well, but I don't say that with much confidence. Hiroki Kuroda gets the edge in my book over Jamie Moyer in Game 3, and Joe Blanton gets the edge at the moment over a probable Greg Maddux in Game 4.

Bullpen - Even; I want to give a very slight edge to Philadelphia because they have the perfect Brad Lidge, but after seeing him struggle mightily in Game 1 vs. Milwaukee, I don't share the same confidence in him as most probably do. However, this series sees two teams with very good bullpens. In what I thought was a smart move, the Dodgers left Takashi Saito off the roster and will rely on Jonathan Broxton to be the closer. Saito isn't 100%, so go with the guy who can throw 101. The Dodgers get lefty Hong-Chih Kuo back which is huge because I expect to see him against the heart of the Phillies order in several key, late-inning situations. As I said I'm slightly nervous about Lidge, but until he blows a save he is still someone you want out there. The Phillies have great setup men also, and if these games go to the bullpens, we should see some really good baseball.

Defense - Dodgers; Both teams are strong with the glove, but the Dodgers have some strong outfield arms and a good defensive catcher and first baseman. The Phillies do have the edge up the middle in Rollins and Utley. I give the edge to the Dodgers because I think they are closer at the positions they are behind Philly at than visa versa. If Furcal is truly healthy, he is a terrific shortstop. I don't see either team losing with the glove though unless the ball is hit to Manny or Howard.

Manager - Dodgers; There could not be more of a contrast here. Joe Torre will probably be elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee when they vote, and Charlie Manuel, well is Charlie Manuel. The longer this series goes, Torre's leadership could prove to be a big difference over Manuel.

Pick - Philadelphia in 7; This was a very tough pick for me to make though, but the Phillies are a much different animal for LA to handle than the Cubs were. Their left-handed stars will be much tougher to deal with than the predominately right handed Cubs lineup. Hamels is a big advantage as well especially after his dominant performance against Milwaukee in the NLDS. However, I can definitely see this series turn the other way. The Dodgers have a lot of things going for them right now and it is sometimes hard to ignore good karma. A perfect example would be the Rockies from last year. This series is a true toss up, and if anything is a difference, the home team was 8-0 in their head-to-head matchups this year.

Pat Morgan

SPRINGSTEEN SUPERBOWL SETLIST PREDICTION

Estimated to a Super Bowl 15-18 minute show:
1.) Radio Nowhere
2.) Born to Run
3.) Lonesome Day or The Rising
4.) Promised Land
5.) Glory Days or Born in the USA

My Top 5 Springsteen Songs:
1.) Long Walk Home
2.) Waitin' on a Sunny Day
3.) Thunder Road
4.) Backstreets
5.) Streets of Philadelphia

Most Overrated:
1.) Born in the USA
2.) Dancing in the Dark
3.) Hungry Heart

NY GIANTS ARE THE CLASS OF THE NFL

Maybe last year's stunning Super Bowl victory wasn't as huge of an upset as it appeared to be. Make no mistake that stopping an 18-0 team from perfection is a monumental upset, but the New York Giants may have just been getting started with that historic win back in February. There is no question right now who the best team in the NFL is at the end of the first quarter of play.

You can say the Dallas Cowboys or San Diego Chargers have better offenses when everything is clicking, and you might be able to say the Tennessee Titans have a better defense. But the Giants are the most balanced team in the NFL. HANDS DOWN!

The Giants have perhaps the most underrated offensive line in all of football. They have made a star out of Brandon Jacobs and the other two backs simply get the job done as well. The Giants receiving core is very deep and just got done hammering the Seahawks without Plaxico Burress. Most importantly, Eli Manning has not come back to Earth after his amazing playoff run last year. I doubt he'll join the elite ranks of Tom Brady and his older brother, Peyton, but he is becoming a superstar who will be the Giants man for years to come.

Perhaps the most stunning part of this team is the bottomless depth of the primary portion of the defense. This team lost the future hall-of-famer, Michael Strahan, to retirement, and Osi Umenyiora to a season-ending injury. But even without those two studs, the Giants defense has not missed a beat. Mathias Kiwanuka, Fred Robbins, Justin Tuck and others have been simply outstanding. The one knock on the Giants defense last year was their secondary, but that part of their team has improved greatly this year. Remember Aaron Ross is a year older and the rest of the secondary has fallen in line.

The only part of this team that you have a chance to exploit is their special teams. If you can dominate field position and somehow stop their running game, maybe someone can stop this team. As it stands right now though, I don't see a team beating them. The Cowboys are showing major warts, the Eagles are nobody without Brian Westbrook, and it may be too soon to take the Redskins real seriously. Outside of the division there really isn't another big time team in the NFL. Maybe the Panthers can get there, but it is a really weak conference outside of the East. Of course we know the AFC empire is crumbling down before our eyes. As I said many things can happen (injuries, breakdown of team chemistry), but it is hard to imagine the Giants won't have a great shot to win their second consecutive championship.

Pat Morgan

BOSOX POSTSEASON MAGIC CONTINUES

All of the 86 years of bad karma that was thrown Beantown's way has really been reversed over the last five years. Last night, the Boston Red Sox had yet another dramatic, late-inning home run that lifted them to a 2-0 series lead over the 100 win, Los Angeles Angels.

Just 12 months ago people were referring to J.D. Drew as J.D. Poo, and calling him perhaps the worst player per dollar in Major League Baseball. But since his grand slam in Game 6 of the ALCS last year he has become a different player. Sure he missed significant time due to injury this year, but you could make the argument he was the Red Sox best player in the first half. The Red Sox now are what the '96-'01 Yankees were as they always come up with a big hit and prove that no deficit is too large. Drew's bomb off of KRod last night is symbolic of that.

The path is paved for the Sox to win their third title in five years. While Tampa Bay has done a great job all season and an even better job beating up on the White Sox, the question right now is can they beat the Red Sox? I am going to say NO. I realize Tampa will have home field in the ALCS, but beating the experienced Red Sox will take them to a new level. The Rays have overcome every obstacle and every naysayer, but they wouldn't be human if they weren't in awe of the Red Sox next week. I would be absolutely shocked if the Rays beat the Sox. Sports history is flooded with experienced, championship level teams beating young and perhaps even more talented teams. I just can't see the Rays beating the Red Sox. I hope I'm wrong as I'd love to see it happen.

On the flip side, the Red Sox have absolutely no pressure on them this postseason. They are still dealing with many injuries to their most important players, they are of course without Manny Ramirez, and the hated Yankees are out of the postseason. Unless they blow a large series lead, Boston fans will give their team a total pass this year should they lose. This has already been stated by the Bob Ryan's and Dan Shaughnessy's of the world. Therefore as they coast home to a third World Series title, they will simply be adding gravy to their run the last four years.

As far as the Angels are concerned, it is time Mike Scioscia take a hit. He has gotten a pass with every postseason loss since the 2002 World Championship. I agree with most of those passes, and I still consider him the best manager in the game. However, this is his best Angels team and the fact they can't seem to get by the Red Sox is a huge embarrassment. Not counting the 1986 ALCS because you shouldn't, the Angels have lost EIGHT postseason games in a row to the BoSox. In the past, they come into postseasons out of gas, but this year they clearly have something left in the tank as evidenced by their comeback last night. However, they are flushing it down the toliet, and it will be a very tough offseason in Halo land.

Pat Morgan

CUBS DEFENSE LETS THEM DOWN; OFFENSE NOT MUCH BETTER

A terrible second inning for the Cubs has put them in hole that will be tough to dig out of.

Two Chicago errors helped lead to five Dodger runs in the second inning alone and the offense barely showed any signs of life until it was too late in a tough 10-3 loss in Game 2 of the NLCS. Los Angeles now leads the series 2-0 heading back to the West Coast. Carlos Zambrano pitched well for the Cubs, despite seven runs allowed (three were earned). With a little bit of help by his defense, it would have been a different outing for him.

With runners at first and third and nobody out, Zambrano struck out Matt Kemp and it looked like he was going to get out the inning with a ground ball off the bat of Blake Dewitt. However, second baseman Mark Derosa booted the ball and a desperate flip to second base was unsuccessful. Andre Ethier scored on the play and the Dodgers led early 1-0. Casey Blake then hit a sharp ball that bounced off first basemen Derek Lee's glove, loading the bases with still only one out. After a strikeout by Chad Billingsley, Rafael Furcal reached on a nifty bunt single, and Russell Martin followed with a bases clearing double to put Los Angeles ahead 5-0.

Manny Ramirez would add a solo home run in the fifth inning. It was his second of the series and 26th in his postseason career.

The Dodgers plated another run on Kemp's RBI double in the seventh and scored two runs in the eighth on a pair of single by Furcal and Ramirez. They capped off the scoring in the ninth, when Casey blake singled home Juan Pierre with the tenth and final run of the night.

Billingsley was lights out on the mound for the Dodgers. Over 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball, he struck out seven and gave up five hits. Billingsley was the ERA leader among Dodger starting pitchers this season, and he certainly showcased his talent tonight.

Alfonso Soriano, one of the streakiest players in the game today, has struggled so far just as he did last postseason. He is 1-8 in this series and 3-23 in the playoffs dating back to last October. Kosuke Fukodome is also struggling mightily and will not start Game 3 on Saturday, according to manager Lou Piniella. The whole lineup is not producing and it needs to turn around in a hurry. The Cubs offense has scored a total of 11 runs in their last five postseason games. The bats better wake up if they are going to come back and force a game five at Wrigley Field.

A couple of runs in the ninth by the Cubs gave the fans a little bit to cheer for, but the final result is the same. Chicago faces a 2-0 deficit heading to Dodger Stadium and not too many would have imagined this scenario.

Shawn Marosek

MYERS "PHIL" THY IN GAME 2 WIN

Brett Myers pitched great in Philadelphia's NLDS Game 2 victory, but his key at bat in the second inning was even more important.

With two outs and a runner on third in a 1-1 ballgame, Myers battled at the plate against Milwaukee starter C.C. Sabathia. He fouled off several pitches and eventually coaxed a walk. The crowd cheered every time Myers made contact, and it erupted when he finally reached first base. The base on balls prolonged the inning and Jimmy Rollins soon followed with a walk of his own. With the bases loaded, Shane Victorino connected for a grand slam to left field and the Phillies never looked back. They now have a 2-0 lead in the best of five series.

Myers was superb on the mound. He gave up two hits, two earned runs and struck out four over seven innings of work. After allowing a run in the first inning, Myers was able to get out of a bases loaded jam by inducing a double play to limit the damage. Milwaukee would squeak across another run in the seventh, but it was too little to late for the Brew Crew.

Sabathia on the other hand, was not sharp at all. Going on three days rest yet again, the soon to be free agent lasted only 3 2/3 innings, a far cry from what he's done over the past three months with the Brewers. He has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball since he was traded to Milwaukee in early July, but it wasn't working for him on this day. Sabathia allowed five earned runs on five hits, while walking four. He hadn't given up more than four earned runs in a game as a member of the Brewers before this start.

Myers, who was demoted to the minors during the year to work on his mechanics., has pitched very well since his return to the majors. After Cole Hamels dominated the Brewers in Game 1, Myers didn't disappoint in Game 2. The fans of Philadelphia were certainly thrilled with this outing.

Shawn Marosek

LONGORIA LEADS RAYS TO VICTORY

Evan Longoria hit two home runs and James Shields pitched into the seventh inning as the Tampa Bay Rays notched their first ever postseason victory with a 6-4 win over the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS. Longoria's second dinger put the Rays ahead 4-3, a lead they would not give up. Longoria also contributed to a two-run fifth for the Rays by singling home Willie Aybar, which was followed up by a run scoring single by Carl Crawford.

White Sox starting pitcher Javier Vazquez lasted only 4 1/3 innings, giving up six earned runs on eight hits. He did strike out 6, but nothing else went right during the short outing.

Shields only mistake was a three run homer to Dwayne Wise in the third inning.

After loading the bases with one out in the top half of the seventh, Shields was relieved by hard-throwing right-hander Greg Balfour, who conveniently struck out Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera to end the threat. Cabrera, who had words for Balfour after the first pitch of the at-bat, couldn't catch up to a 90-plus mph fastball. Balfour was ecstatic coming off the mound and pointed at Cabrera, gesturing him to sit down.

Dan Wheeler closed it out for the Rays, depsite giving up a home run to Konerko after an 11-pitch at bat.

Longoria became only the second player ever to hit two home runs in his first two postseason plate appearances. The last man to do it was Gary Gaetti for the Minnesota Twins in 1987.

Shawn Marosek

WHITE SOX VS RAYS BREAKDOWN

The Tampa Bay Rays make their postseason debut this afternoon against the Chicago White Sox. Game 1 of their ALDS series begins at 2:30 p.m est. Chicago beat three different teams to end the regular season and now are facing a well-rested Rays team. Tampa Bay should win this series as long as their bullpen holds up. Closer Troy Percival was left off the ALDS roster because of injury, so the rest of the unit will have to step up. Carl Crawford returns to the Rays lineup after missing significant time. This will be a huge boost to Tampa Bay, who already had a strong defense in the outfield to begin with.

Many times, a team that fights to get into the playoffs plays better than the team that's got all the rest. However, I don't see it happening here. The White Sox pitching staff has been under a lot of stress lately and I don't see that being a good thing heading into this series. The combination of James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza should be plenty to get past the South Siders. The White Sox might steal a game, but that's all. I'm looking forward to what Ozzie Guillen is going to say after his team makes an early exit.

RAYS IN FOUR GAMES

Shawn Marosek

RED SOX VS ANGELS BREAKDOWN

Many people consider these teams to be the best two in baseball, which makes for an intriguing ALDS, beginning tonight at 10 p.m. est. The Red Sox are dealing with a couple of key injuries (Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett), while the Angels are the best all around team in the American League, and maybe all of baseball. They do everything well and they should be the AL World Series representative come late October. Both managers have postseason experience, but I think Mike Scioscia is going to get the best of Terry Francona this year. With Manny Ramirez now a Dodger, I have a feeling that Jason Bay is going to have a tough time coming through this postseason. He knows that Manny was a stud in the playoffs while he was in Boston, and now he must fill those shoes. He's going to feel the pressure, and I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles against the Angels pitching staff.

This series is bound to be a five-game affair, with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-San Jose-Sacramento taking care of business. The only question mark I have with this team is John Lackey. He has struggled the past couple of starts in September. Maybe it was because the Angels had clinched the division already or maybe it wasn't. If he struggles, momentum could easily turn toward Boston. The other key in this series is K-Rod vs. Papelbon. With the extra days off, both teams can stretch two innings out of their closer, which could be the deciding factor.

ANGELS IN FIVE GAMES

Shawn Marosek