Starting Lineup - Phillies; Philadelphia matches up against the Dodgers pitching much better than the Cubs did in the NLDS. Unlike the Cubs, the Phillies big boppers are lefties. I expect Ryan Howard to have a big series with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley setting the table. I like the depth of the Phillies lineup better as well. Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth were perhaps the two most influential hitters against Milwaukee. If Pat Burrell builds on the two homers he hit in the series clincher in the previous round, the Phillies offense will be very tough to handle. We all know Manny Ramirez is the single greatest threat in this series, but I think the most important hitter for the Dodgers is Rafael Furcal. If he can get on base regularly, it will mean that the Phillies will have to pitch to Manny more than they'd like. They will need Andre Either and Matt Kemp to pick it up otherwise the backend of the Dodgers lineup will be easy to tame. I give the Phillies the edge though based on their balanced and much deeper lineup.
Bench - Dodgers; Neither team has a particularly strong bench, but I'll give the slight edge to LA. They have Jeff Kent who is probably the best hitter off the bench for either team. Juan Pierre can come in and manufacture a run if they need it late in a game. The Phillies best bats off the bench are Matt Stairs and So Taguchi. Neither team will scare you with a hidden bat late in a game though.
Starting Pitching - Phillies; Cole Hamels is the best pitcher on either side, but this is a very close category. If Derek Lowe can continue his good run of pitching and somehow steal Game 1, the Dodgers might have the edge the rest of the way. Chad Billingsley is an exceptional pitcher and the Game 2 matchup with Brett Myers will be very compelling. I expect Hamels to deliver Game 1, so Billingsley would hold the future of the series in his hands. To me, Myers is a huge wildcard in this series. He is certainly capable of tossing eight, one-run innings, but on the flip side, he could be chased in the third inning. I expect he'll pitch well, but I don't say that with much confidence. Hiroki Kuroda gets the edge in my book over Jamie Moyer in Game 3, and Joe Blanton gets the edge at the moment over a probable Greg Maddux in Game 4.
Bullpen - Even; I want to give a very slight edge to Philadelphia because they have the perfect Brad Lidge, but after seeing him struggle mightily in Game 1 vs. Milwaukee, I don't share the same confidence in him as most probably do. However, this series sees two teams with very good bullpens. In what I thought was a smart move, the Dodgers left Takashi Saito off the roster and will rely on Jonathan Broxton to be the closer. Saito isn't 100%, so go with the guy who can throw 101. The Dodgers get lefty Hong-Chih Kuo back which is huge because I expect to see him against the heart of the Phillies order in several key, late-inning situations. As I said I'm slightly nervous about Lidge, but until he blows a save he is still someone you want out there. The Phillies have great setup men also, and if these games go to the bullpens, we should see some really good baseball.
Defense - Dodgers; Both teams are strong with the glove, but the Dodgers have some strong outfield arms and a good defensive catcher and first baseman. The Phillies do have the edge up the middle in Rollins and Utley. I give the edge to the Dodgers because I think they are closer at the positions they are behind Philly at than visa versa. If Furcal is truly healthy, he is a terrific shortstop. I don't see either team losing with the glove though unless the ball is hit to Manny or Howard.
Manager - Dodgers; There could not be more of a contrast here. Joe Torre will probably be elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee when they vote, and Charlie Manuel, well is Charlie Manuel. The longer this series goes, Torre's leadership could prove to be a big difference over Manuel.
Pick - Philadelphia in 7; This was a very tough pick for me to make though, but the Phillies are a much different animal for LA to handle than the Cubs were. Their left-handed stars will be much tougher to deal with than the predominately right handed Cubs lineup. Hamels is a big advantage as well especially after his dominant performance against Milwaukee in the NLDS. However, I can definitely see this series turn the other way. The Dodgers have a lot of things going for them right now and it is sometimes hard to ignore good karma. A perfect example would be the Rockies from last year. This series is a true toss up, and if anything is a difference, the home team was 8-0 in their head-to-head matchups this year.
Pat Morgan
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