Wednesday, October 24, 2007

World Series Breakdown/Prediction

103rd World Series
Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox








Starting Pitching: Red Sox;
Jeff Francis has beat Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb in his two Game 1 starts so far this postseason, but if he manages to beat Josh Beckett, this department becomes much more even. Beckett is being compared to Sandy Koufax due to his postseason dominance. The Sox have Curt Schilling in Game 2 who is a postseason great as well. He isn't the same pitcher, but he will still battle and give you all he has. I wonder how Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Fogg will respond to a much better offense in Boston compared to Arizona. The Rockies do have Aaron Cook back, and could have an advantage in Games 3&4 with DiceK and Lester on the mound. However, Beckett gives the Red Sox a huge advantage in this department.

Relief Pitching: EVEN; I almost picked the Rockies here due to their depth, but the Red Sox have the great closer in Jonathan Papelbon. No other reliever in this series can be considered lockdown. Manny Corpas has been great, but he is capable of blowing a save or two. However, beyond Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox are very thin in the pen. The Rockies can throw out Hawkins, Herges, Affeldt, Fuentes, and Corpas. A perfect line of pitchers to have considering most of the Rockies' starters won't make it past five, six innings.

Offense: Rockies; No one can deny the Red Sox have the two best bats in the series. Manny and Big Papi can dominate these games themselves, but I like the depth of the Rockies' offense much, much better. Matt Holliday is a close third to Papi and Manny, and is right in the middle of Rockies' 2-7 in Matsui, Holliday, Helton, Atkins, Hawpe, and Tulowitzki. That greatly trumps what Boston has. Torrealba in the 8 spot has also made great contributions, such as the huge 3-run homer in Game 3 of the NLCS. The Red Sox will also lose either Ortiz, Lowell, or Youkilis in Games 3-5 at Coors Field. How will they respond to that? Ellsbury does add a bat at the end of the lineup to improve the great Coco, Lugo combination in the lineup. Pedroia is obviously out of his slump as well. You could pick either team here and get away with it, but I love the Rockies' depth.

Bench: Neither; The best bench player on either team is Bobby Kielty. Enough said? The Red Sox will have the advantage at Coors though with Papi, Lowell, or Youkilis riding the pine.

Defense: Rockies;
The Rockies' defense has sparkled all postseason long. They would not have gone 7-0 without the great glove play. Those games with Arizona were really much closer than the 4-0 sweep indicated. Troy Tulowitzki is a vacuum cleaner at short. Boston plays good defense too, but Big Papi at first in Games 3-5, with that bad knee, could really hurt them.

Manager: Red Sox;
Terry Francona has really become a great manager for Boston. His approach to these games are unheralded. I don't think the Sox would have made their magicial 0-3 comeback in 2004 or the 1-3 comeback they just made without him as manager. I like Hurdle, but Francona is becoming one of the best managers in baseball. He also handles the Boston media with ease. He has come a long way since managing Michael Jordan and the Birmingham Barons.

Pick: Red Sox in 6;
Josh Beckett is a huge advantage in this series. If the Rockies can beat him once, this could be a seven game series with the Rockies possibly pulling the upset. However, if they go 0-2 vs. Beckett, I can't see them taking 4 of the other 5 games to win the series. This is the best series, on paper, in my opinion since the 2001 Yankees/Diamondbacks series. I have to go with the AL though, as it has been the best league by far all season long.

Pat Morgan

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If the Rockies can steal the first game from Beckett, I sincerely believe that they will be the first modern team to run the table. Winning the World Series is one thing, but to do it in 3 rounds of playoffs without losing one game would be astounding. Even the '98 Yankees lost two games, and they were one of the best teams ever. So, to go along with my early postseason prediction, Rockies sweep - they are just too hot to stop.